One source said it is hard to see a programme being reached this close to an election, because the IMF must be confident the terms would hold well after the polls. The sources pointed to a trend in which the IMF has waited for election cycles to end before signing new agreements, including in Senegal and Zambia. The IMF did not directly respond on whether the election would derail a successor program, but said engagements continue ahead of a staff visit in December for Article IV consultations.
Kenya's last IMF-supported programme lapsed in March 2025 by mutual agreement, after the IMF cited breaches, leaving roughly Sh110 billion ($850 million) undisbursed. The IMF's concerns included unmet conditions such as the restructuring of Kenya Airways and limits on the use of fuel stabilisation fund cash.
The Treasury is already looking elsewhere. Kenya has opened talks with the World Bank and the African Development Bank for a Sh127 billion loan, made up of Sh94 billion in World Bank budget support and Sh34 billion from the AfDB, which the Treasury expects before the end of the 2026/27 financial year. Public Debt Management Director General Raphael Owino said a new IMF mission is expected at the end of November or early December, after a change in the fund's Kenya team delayed consultations.
The World Bank has warned that delays in reaching a new IMF programme could weaken the credibility of Kenya's fiscal framework
