Kenya’s economic growth is projected to slow to 4.5 per cent in 2027 from an estimated 4.8 per cent in 2026, as domestic economic vulnerabilities and global uncertainty weigh on business activity and investment. NCBA Group’s 2027 Macroeconomic Outlook forecasts slower expansion across agriculture, industry and services, signalling a more challenging operating environment for businesses and households.
It is said that agriculture is expected to grow by 4.4 per cent in 2027, compared with the estimated performance in the current year. Industry is projected to expand by 4.8 per cent, while the services sector is expected to record growth of 4.5 per cent.
The projections point to a moderation in economic activity across the three main sectors, which collectively account for a significant share of Kenya’s output and employment. Agriculture remains important for rural incomes and exports, while industry and services support manufacturing, construction, trade, finance and other commercial activities.
NCBA Group Managing Director John Gachora attributed the expected slowdown to uncertainty in international markets and emerging domestic weaknesses. External risks include changes in global trade conditions, geopolitical tensions and fluctuations in commodity prices, while local pressures could affect investment, public finances and consumer demand.
The bank nevertheless expects inflation to ease to 6.5 per cent by December 2027. The forecast suggests price pressures could moderate, although households and businesses will continue to face changes in the cost of essential goods and services.
The shilling is projected to trade at an average of about Sh131 against the US dollar, a forecast that will be closely watched by importers, exporters and companies with foreign-currency obligations. Exchange-rate movements influence the cost of imported fuel, machinery, raw materials and other goods.
Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi has said the government is working with the Central Bank of Kenya to sustain economic growth through investment and job creation. Such efforts are expected to support productive sectors and strengthen employment opportunities.
The 2027 outlook will also be shaped by domestic policy decisions and international developments. Businesses and investors will monitor inflation, currency movements, government spending and sector performance as the economy heads into the next financial year.
