The year 2026 is on course to become one of the four warmest years ever recorded, with rising ocean temperatures, melting glaciers and increasing sea levels highlighting the growing impact of climate change across the world.
A new report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns that an intensifying El Niño event could push global temperatures even higher and increase the risk of extreme weather conditions well into 2027.
The WMO State of the Climate Update 2026, released on Monday, November 9, during the opening of the COP31 climate conference in Antalya, Türkiye, shows that the past 12 years have individually been the warmest on record.
According to the report, the past four years, from 2023 to 2026, are expected to rank as the four warmest since temperature records began.
Global average temperatures between January and September 2026 were approximately 1.47 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average recorded between 1850 and 1900.
The figure is expected to rise further before the end of the year due to the warming influence of El Niño, which has been strengthening since August and is forecast to continue into early 2027.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern associated with the warming of ocean waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Although it does not create additional heat, the WMO says it releases heat stored in the ocean into the atmosphere, adding to the warming already caused by greenhouse gas emissions.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the current climate conditions had given new meaning to the phrase "off the charts", warning that the developing El Niño was increasing risks on a planet already experiencing unusually high temperatures.
The report also identifies record levels of ocean heat and global sea levels, alongside continued glacier retreat and declining freshwater storage.
The ocean absorbs about 90 per cent of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases, and 2026 is expected to mark the tenth consecutive year of record ocean warmth.
Global mean sea level also reached a new high in 2026, with June, July and August recording the highest levels since satellite measurements began in 1993.
Meanwhile, glaciers lost more than 400 gigatons of ice in 2025, an amount equivalent to approximately one millimetre of global sea-level rise. The annual loss was so significant that the volume of melted ice could have filled five Olympic-sized swimming pools every second throughout the year.
The WMO further warned that freshwater stored on land, including in rivers, reservoirs, groundwater, soil and snow, has been declining globally since 2014.
Extreme weather events have also continued to take a heavy toll on communities, economies and livelihoods.
The report cites European heatwaves, drought and wildfires that contributed to more than 30,000 excess deaths, according to preliminary estimates. It also estimates that 146.5 million people in India were exposed to extreme heat during an April 2026 heatwave.
In Nepal, a glacier collapse in the Himalayas triggered catastrophic flash floods in late August, killing more than 1,300 people and causing extensive economic damage.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres called for faster reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and increased support for vulnerable countries, warning that those least responsible for climate change were often suffering its worst effects.
He urged world leaders to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels while providing vulnerable communities with the financing and protection needed to cope with climate-related disasters.
The WMO also emphasised the importance of reliable weather forecasts and early warning systems in reducing the impact of extreme weather.
The number of countries reporting multi-hazard early warning systems increased from 56 in 2015 to 136 in 2025, offering improved preparedness against different types of disasters.
The report's findings are based on available scientific data up to September 2026 and do not capture the latest impacts of the developing El Niño.
The WMO is expected to release its full State of the Global Climate 2026 report in March 2027, incorporating additional scientific contributions from national meteorological agencies and international climate experts.
