Elon Musk has confirmed that SpaceX and Tesla have each formed special committees of independent directors to study a merger. Musk said the committees had not yet agreed terms and that a deal was not certain. Reports showthat Musk wants a deal before Trump leaves office, with a target window running to mid-2027.
Musk made the disclosure on a SpaceX earnings call, where he said the merger would be a good idea but that calling it a certainty would be “overstating it”. He added that shareholders would have to support any deal. Its reported that the talks are at an early stage, that both companies have hired advisers, and that SpaceX approached Tesla in recent weeks.
Musk has stepped back from the negotiations. He described himself as a conflicted party and said advisers were in contact with his lawyers to keep him out of the talks. That structure is designed to protect the independence of the process, since Musk owns nearly a fifth of Tesla and just under half of SpaceX.
The timing is contested. Barclays analyst Dan Levy wrote on October 14 that an announcement could come before Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting in early December; citing people familiar with the matter, reported that Musk is aiming for a deal before Trump leaves office, with a target window running to mid-2027. Those accounts point to different dates and neither has been confirmed by the companies.
Prediction markets have been more cautious. One analysis put the odds of a deal being announced by year-end at about 24 percent, and analysts such as Dan Ives have forecast a deal by early 2027 with a high probability. Those views are forecasts, not company statements.
The obstacles are substantial. Musk controls more than 80 percent of SpaceX’s voting power but owns only about 20 percent of Tesla, which makes Tesla shareholder approval the tougher hurdle. Bloomberg has listed the midterm elections and a possible selloff in chip and AI stocks as risks to the timetable.
Both companies have changed considerably this year. SpaceX merged with Musk’s artificial intelligence venture xAI earlier in 2026, and it listed on Nasdaq in June after a record $75 billion initial public offering. Tesla holds a stake in SpaceX, and it has said it expects capital spending of more than $25 billion this year.
The committees must first decide whether they can agree on a proposal worth putting to shareholders. The formation of the committees does not commit either company to a transaction, and both boards could still reject a deal.
The next signals will be the outcome of the committees’ work, any filing from either company, and the Tesla annual meeting in early December. Investors will watch whether the companies confirm a deal timetable, and whether the independent directors are willing to take a proposal to shareholders.
