President William Ruto and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna have emerged as joint frontrunners in the race for the 2027 presidential election, with both commanding 31 per cent support among Kenyans, according to a new opinion poll by Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA).
The findings place Sifuna on equal footing with the incumbent president in terms of Kenyans' preferred presidential candidate, marking a significant rise for the senator, who has increasingly positioned himself as a leading opposition voice.
The survey, released on Thursday, November 12, asked respondents whom they would like to win the 2027 presidential election, regardless of whether they had ever voted or intended to vote in the future.
Ruto's support has grown from 18 per cent in August 2022 to 31 per cent in November 2026, while Sifuna has recorded a remarkable rise from having no measurable support in the earlier surveys to matching the president at 31 per cent.
TIFA noted that Sifuna's growing popularity has largely come at the expense of other opposition politicians rather than President Ruto, suggesting that the senator's emergence has significantly reshaped the opposition's political landscape.
The poll indicates that support for other potential opposition presidential candidates remains substantial, collectively accounting for 19 per cent. However, TIFA cautioned that this support cannot automatically be assumed to shift to Sifuna or any other candidate who might eventually emerge as the opposition's joint flagbearer.
The survey further noted that Sifuna's current standing could make it difficult for opposition leaders to overlook his popularity when negotiating the possibility of presenting a single candidate against Ruto in 2027.
However, the president maintains a stronger hold among supporters of the Broad-Based Government (BBG), with 83 per cent of the bloc's supporters preferring him as the next president.
Sifuna, meanwhile, enjoys the support of 66 per cent of respondents opposed to the Broad-Based Government, placing him as the leading opposition alternative in the current rankings.
The findings also reveal interesting voting preferences across different political formations. Nearly all UDA supporters prefer Ruto, while supporters of the Linda Mwananchi faction overwhelmingly favour Sifuna.
Wiper supporters largely back party leader Kalonzo Musyoka, while Jubilee supporters lean towards former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i, although his support within the party stands at a comparatively modest 57 per cent.
Notably, Sifuna appears more popular than former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua among supporters of the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), commanding 34 per cent against Gachagua's 25 per cent.
He also comes close to matching Ruto among ODM supporters, where the senator enjoys 33 per cent support compared to the president's 42 per cent.
The survey further found that Ruto remains more popular than any potential opposition candidate among Jubilee supporters, apart from Matiang'i.
Meanwhile, the proportion of undecided respondents has declined from 20 per cent in June 2026 to 15 per cent in November 2026. TIFA observed that many of those who remain undecided have limited knowledge of or interest in politics and the Broad-Based Government arrangement.
While the latest findings place Ruto and Sifuna at the top of the popularity rankings, TIFA cautioned that the figures should not be interpreted as a prediction of the actual election outcome.
