Kenya’s fertility rate has declined to 3.1 births per woman, down from 3.4 in 2022, although the latest demographic survey reveals significant differences in reproductive patterns across the country.
The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) Kenya Mini Demographic and Health Survey 2025/2026 shows that Embu has the lowest fertility rate at 2.2 births per woman, while Mandera records the highest at 6.8.
The figures highlight a wide gap between counties, with fertility rates in some parts of northern and north-eastern Kenya remaining considerably higher than those recorded in several central and urban counties.
Mandera is followed by Wajir at 5.8 births per woman, Tana River at 5.7, Turkana at 5.6 and Garissa at 5.3.
At the lower end, Kiambu and Mombasa each record 2.3 births per woman, while Nairobi and Kericho stand at 2.6. Kirinyaga and Tharaka Nithi each record 2.7.
The national decline continues a longer-term trend in Kenya’s population patterns. The country’s fertility rate stood at 6.7 births per woman in 1989 before falling to 3.4 in 2022 and reaching 3.1 in the latest survey.
The survey also identifies a difference between rural and urban areas, with women in rural settings recording an average of 3.6 births compared with 2.6 among their urban counterparts.
KNBS calculated the fertility rates using pregnancy histories reported by women aged between 15 and 49. The findings point to changing reproductive patterns, with factors such as women’s age, the timing of first births and intervals between pregnancies influencing the number of children they have.
The report notes that postponing first births and extending the intervals between subsequent births have contributed to declining fertility levels in different countries.
The survey further recorded a reduction in adolescent births, which fell from 73 to 63 per 1,000 girls aged between 15 and 19.
The survey also found a decline in teenage pregnancy, although significant differences remain across counties.
The proportion of girls and young women aged 15 to 19 who have ever been pregnant fell from 14.8 per cent in 2022 to 11.9 per cent in the 2025/2026 survey.
West Pokot recorded the highest prevalence at 25 per cent, followed by Migori at 23 per cent and Kajiado at 20 per cent. The lowest rates were reported in Nyeri at 2 per cent, Isiolo at 3.4 per cent and Makueni at 3.7 per cent.
The survey also recorded a reduction in the adolescent birth rate, which dropped from 73 to 63 births per 1,000 girls aged 15 to 19. While the pregnancy indicator measures those who have ever been pregnant, the birth rate captures how many teenage girls gave birth within the measured period.
The findings point to an overall improvement in adolescent reproductive health, but the substantial differences between counties show that progress remains uneven. West Pokot, Migori and Kajiado continue to record considerably higher teenage pregnancy prevalence than counties such as Nyeri and Makueni.
The findings show that while Kenya’s overall fertility rate continues to fall, the pace and extent of the change differ across counties. The contrasting figures from Embu and Mandera underline the uneven demographic patterns that remain beneath the national average.
