Kenya is expected to experience above-average rainfall in several parts of the country in October, with the Kenya Meteorological Department warning of heavy rainfall events in some areas.
According to the October 2026 rainfall forecast, areas along the Coast and parts of northeastern Kenya have a higher probability of receiving above-average rainfall.
These include Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu, Mandera and parts of Taita Taveta, Tana River, Garissa and Wajir counties.
Above-average rainfall is also expected in Makueni, Kajiado, Machakos, Nairobi, Kiambu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Nyandarua and Nyeri.
Parts of Taita Taveta, Tana River, Garissa, Wajir, Marsabit, Laikipia, Nakuru and Narok are also expected to record above-average rainfall.
The meteorological department forecasts near-average to above-average rainfall in Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Homa Bay, Kakamega, Kericho, Kisii, Kisumu, Migori, Nandi, Nyamira, Samburu, Siaya, Trans Nzoia, Turkana, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga and West Pokot.
Parts of Narok, Nakuru and Laikipia are also included in this category.
The department has warned that heavy rainfall events are likely in several parts of the country, raising the risk of flash floods, riverine flooding, landslides and damage to infrastructure, particularly in low-lying and poorly drained areas.
The October rains are expected to mark the onset of the October-November-December short-rains season across much of Kenya as the Intertropical Convergence Zone shifts southwards across East Africa.
The rains could improve soil moisture, support land preparation and planting, enhance pasture regeneration and increase water availability for livestock and domestic use.
However, the department cautions that excessive rainfall could also cause waterlogging, disrupt farming operations, increase crop diseases and affect the transportation of agricultural produce.
Heavy rains may further disrupt road transport through flooding, waterlogging and erosion, with rural access roads and urban areas with inadequate drainage considered particularly vulnerable.
The department also warns that stagnant water could create breeding grounds for mosquitoes, while flooding and poor sanitation could increase the risk of waterborne diseases.
For the October-December season, above-average rainfall is forecast in a large number of counties, while temperatures are expected to be warmer than average in parts of the Coast, Taita Taveta, Garissa and Tana River.
